Bitcoin's Conviction Cycle: How To See the Bigger Picture
Hi friends!
Last week on Bitcoin for Millennials, we explored two very different — but deeply connected — perspectives on Bitcoin conviction.
One comes from Richard Byworth, a $2B asset manager who sees Bitcoin’s “boredom phase” as the setup for its next institutional breakout.
The other comes from Bitcoin Katie, who lost everything in the Celsius collapse — and through that loss, discovered the only form of money that can’t be taken from you.
Together, their stories reveal what every Bitcoiner eventually learns:
conviction is forged in cycles — not just market cycles, but human ones.
🧭 The View from the Top: Institutional Calm Amid Retail Fatigue
Richard Byworth has lived through every major Bitcoin cycle — from the early exchange hacks to the 2021 bull mania to today’s uneasy calm.
His thesis is simple: the boredom is the signal.
Retail might be disengaged, but institutions are quietly buying.
Sovereign wealth funds and pension managers are accumulating.
Nation states are exploring reserve positions.
ETFs are absorbing more Bitcoin daily than miners can produce.
“Bitcoin always does this — it goes quiet, it shakes out the tourists, and then it moves when nobody’s watching.”
Meanwhile, the “debasement trade” — the flight from fiat into scarce assets — is accelerating under the surface.
Governments print.
Debt compounds.
And institutional capital is starting to realize: there’s no way back to “normal.”
Byworth calls this the institutional phase of Bitcoin — where conviction isn’t loud or flashy. It’s quiet, data-driven, and patient.
💥 The View from the Ground: Pain as a Teacher
If Richard represents Bitcoin’s macro story, Bitcoin Katie represents its human story.
She lost everything in 2022 when Celsius froze withdrawals. Overnight, her “safe yield” turned into a black hole.
But what could have been an ending became the beginning of a transformation.
“It wasn’t just losing money. It was realizing how little control I actually had.”
Through that collapse, she discovered self-custody — and the difference between “crypto” and Bitcoin.
For the first time, she understood:
Bitcoin has no CEO, no company, no promises.
It’s the only digital asset that can’t be diluted or seized.
And it forces you to take responsibility — which is terrifying at first, but liberating in the end.
“I thought I was chasing wealth. But what I really found was sovereignty.”
Her journey mirrors the one that every early adopter faces: the move from trust to verification, from passive belief to active understanding.
⚖️ Two Sides of Conviction
What unites Richard and Katie is clarity.
One gained it through macro analysis; the other through personal loss.
Both now see Bitcoin not as an investment, but as infrastructure — the base layer of a more honest world.
Richard sees conviction in the numbers: the shrinking supply, the inflow data, the debt spiral.
Katie sees conviction in experience: the moment she held her keys and realized no one could take her savings again.
Both perspectives are essential.
One explains why Bitcoin works.
The other shows what it means to live it.
💡 The Conviction Cycle
Every Bitcoiner goes through the same stages:
Curiosity: The price, the hype, the promise.
Disillusionment: The volatility, the noise, the scams.
Understanding: The aha moment — realizing Bitcoin isn’t a get-rich scheme, it’s a get-free one.
Conviction: The peace that comes from knowing why you’re here.
That’s where Richard and Katie meet — on the far side of understanding.
One from Wall Street, one from a bedroom YouTube channel.
Different worlds, same truth: Bitcoin rewards the patient and punishes the passive.
🪙 Final Reflection
Markets go through cycles.
So do people.
And Bitcoin has a way of bringing both into alignment — stripping away illusion until only truth and conviction remain.
“In every cycle, someone discovers Bitcoin for the first time — and someone rediscovers why they believed in the first place.”
Enjoy the episodes,
Bram Kanstein
𝕏 @bramk
📺 youtube.com/@bramk
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